Ealing Council has warned that falling pupil numbers are putting increasing financial pressure on primary and secondary schools across the borough, and changes may be needed to keep schools financially viable.
The number of children starting primary school in Ealing has fallen by more than 900, or around 20%, since its peak in 2014/15.
The figures were published in a report presented to Ealing Council’s Cabinet yesterday (7 October 2026) by cabinet member for a fairer start Councillor Blerina Hashani.
The report also highlights growing demand for specialist school places for children and young people with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND).
Since 2017/18, 18 primary schools across Ealing have reduced their admission numbers, cutting a total of 615 Reception places.
In its report, Labour-run Ealing Council said reducing school admission numbers had helped manage falling pupil numbers “without the need for school mergers or closures”. But it warned that continued declines and financial pressures meant “a broader range of options” would need to be considered.
Speaking at the cabinet meeting, Ealing Council leader Councillor Peter Mason acknowledged that the borough was beginning to face problems that had affected other parts of London for several years.
He said: “We as a council have not had to actually face some of the challenges that some of our colleagues in central London have been faced with now for quite a few years, but have seen significant change to school estate and place planning in inner London boroughs.
“We are now starting to see some of that happening. Of course we will do that with sensitivity and transparency for all involved.”
The council has warned of “significant risks” to maintaining high-quality school provision in Greenford, Northolt and Perivale West unless action is taken.
A consultation on the future of primary school places in the area is planned for October and November 2026.
In Northolt, Ealing Council is already consulting on proposals to close Viking Primary School and merge it with nearby Downe Manor Primary School from September 2027.
Secondary schools are also seeing fewer pupils, with the council forecasting a growing number of unfilled places in the coming years.
In September 2025, there were 3,778 Year 7 places available across Ealing. By January 2026, 3,518 pupils were on roll, leaving around 7% of places unfilled.
The council expects numbers to fall further as smaller primary school year groups move into secondary education.
Its forecasts show that between 8% and 12% of Year 7 places could remain unfilled up to 2030, rising to 18% by 2031/32.
Reductions in secondary school admission numbers have already been agreed for September 2026 and September 2027.
While some parts of Ealing have more school places than pupils, Southall could face a shortage of primary places from September 2027.
The council says the forecasts are less certain than usual because the relationship between local birth rates and school admissions has changed since the pandemic.
Housing developments could also increase demand. Schemes including The Green Quarter and Middlesex Business Centre could bring more than 10,000 additional homes to Southall over the next 10 to 20 years.
The report says provision for additional primary school places has been allowed for in planning approvals linked to these developments, although options for delivering them are still being considered.
Villiers High School in Southall is also expected to gain an additional form of entry as part of its rebuilding programme, due for completion in 2027/28.
Demand for specialist education is moving in the opposite direction to mainstream school rolls.
The number of children and young people aged up to 25 with education, health and care plans (EHCPs) reached 4,545 in January 2026, an increase of 500 in a year and 35% over five years.
Ealing Council estimates that up to 500 additional specialist places could be needed over the next five years, particularly for children with severe learning difficulties and speech, language and communication needs, including autism.
The council is considering using space in mainstream schools to provide additional specialist places for children with SEND, making use of existing school buildings where pupil numbers have fallen.
